Usain Bolt in full flow 4x100m relay mode in London (© Getty Images)
There once used to be a simple rule of relay running: the U.S. got the baton around without actually dropping it, and they won.
The rule’s still the same, only now it’s Jamaica that has taken over the U.S. role. In winning the past two global championships – the Beijing Olympics, in a World record 37.10 seconds; the Berlin world championships in 37.31 – the Caribbean sprint superpower has run the two fastest-ever times.
There’s lots of other rules about relays, too, such as a champion team will always beat a team of champions and, it’s not the speed of the runners it’s the speed of the baton.
Like all such generalisations, these have a kernel of truth, but another one trumps them, and it is this: if you’ve got the four fastest men on the planet, and the baton exchanges are even close to average, then you’re going to be very hard to beat.
A glance at the 4x100 list tells us that a USA quartet that includes Trell Kimmons, Justin Gatlin and Walter Dix is the fastest in the world this year at 37.90 run at Lignano Sabbiadoro on 19 July.
A glance at the 100m list, however, reveals that three of the five fastest active men this year going into Daegu – Asafa Powell (9.78), Michael Frater and one Usain Bolt (both 9.88) – are Jamaican.
Tyson Gay, who is injured and out of the World championships, at 9.79, and Michael Rodgers (9.85), who won't be in Daegu, are the only Americans in the same bracket.
Others, including European Team Championships winner Great Britain, Trinidad, Poland, Brazil and Asian champion Japan, are entitled to think they are in with a shout at a medal. The inevitable dropped baton and botched pass means the net could be passed wider still – but the reality is that it is most likely to be Jamaica on top of the dais, the USA on the next rung.
The current situation is a complete role reversal from much of sprint relay history. Then, it was the U.S. which dominated the upper levels of men’s sprinting and relays, while teams like Jamaica hoped to capitalise on any slip.
Now, it’s the other way round. So what could go wrong for the favourites?
When a Jamaican team beat the U.S. at this year’s Penn Relays, it was led off by Powell, who has been the anchor man until now, with Bolt utilising his bend running on the third leg. Change can be difficult to accommodate in a relay, but it’s hard to see how Powell starting and Bolt finishing could harm Jamaica overall.
Wear and tear: Powell has had a couple of ‘moments’ this year, pulling up in a race in Rabat the worst of them; Bolt cut last season with back problems and was troubled again by Stockholm’s tight bends. A tough schedule in pursuit of the sprint double in Daegu could, just could, find Bolt struggling.
It’s likely to be relay or bust for the U.S., as the erstwhile superpower could be shut out of the men’s individual sprint medals. Maybe that will concentrate the minds of the relay squad intensely.
Otherwise, it looks like Jamaica again in the 4x100.
Len Johnson for the IAAF
