Edmonton
set for epic women’s 10,000m
K. Ken Nakamura for the IAAF
30 July 2001 - We are very fortunate to
be following the sports of track and field in an era when the women’s 10,000m is
at the greatest height in the event’s history. The 1999 World Championships
10,000m was possibly the greatest women’s race in the event’s history, but the
2000 Olympic final proved to be even better. It was a mesmerizing race. Can we
possibly top this in Edmonton? It is certainly possible.
Although the field may not be loaded with many all-time greats of the event as in the 2000 Olympic Games, Paula Radcliffe of Great Britain still can make the final in Edmonton a memorable one. She will certainly determine how the final in Edmonton will unfold.
In the 1999 World Championships in Sevilla, Radcliffe forced the pace almost from the start, with Gete Wami and Tegla Loroupe in tow. They passed the 5000m in 15:25.24 and followed it up with the final 5000m in a remarkable 14:59.32. In the 2000 Olympic Games, Radcliffe started even faster. She covered the first 5000m in 15:05.70. Yet on both occasions, Radcliffe was outkicked in the final lap.
Gete Wami, who will again be one of Radcliffe’s main rivals in Edmonton said:
“Every race I run against Paula, I know that it will be very difficult to win. Paula is always pushing the pace and therefore I need to run with full concentration. Sometimes people might think that it is easy for me to stay with her and use my finishing kick, but I can tell you that this is not the case!”
Radcliffe, because of her courageous run in Sydney, will be a sentimental favorite in Edmonton. However, unlike Sydney, in Edmonton Radcliffe may be the favorite as well. Radcliffe has been a top distance runner since the mid-90’s. However, up until 1999 she had never won a medal in the Olympics, Worlds, or Europeans. She was fifth at the 5000m in both the 1995 World Championships, and 1996 Olympics. After finishing fourth at the 5000m in the1997 World Championships, Radcliffe moved up to the 10,000m and finished fifth in the 1998 European Championships. Her problem was her lack of a finishing kick, which again was shown as her weakness in both the 1999 Worlds and the 2000 Olympics.
However, Radcliffe is on a roll since her memorable run in the Olympic Games. After winning the World Half Marathon Championships in Veracruz, Mexico, in November of 2000, Radcliffe won the coveted World Cross Country Championships title (at the long course) in Ostend in March of 2001.
This summer, Radcliffe may be in the best shape of her life, having set personal bests at both the 3000m (8:26.97 in Rome), and the 1500m (4:05.37 in Glasgow); she also came close to her personal best at the 5000m (14:44.21 in London).
If Radcliffe failed to run away from the field, the favorite for the gold medal will again be Ethiopians Derartu Tulu and Gete Wami who have traditionally shown great finishing speed.
In Sevilla, Wami covered the final 200m in 31.7 to win the 10,000m in the fifth fastest time in history at that time: 30:24.56. Tulu has even faster finishing speed, having won the Olympic 10,000m twice utilising her wicked kick. In the 1992 Barcelona Olympics, her final 400m was 65.92. In Sydney, she was even faster. She covered the final 400m in a stunning 60.26 on her way to the fourth fastest time in history, 30:17.49.
But unlike last year, when both Wami and Tulu were displaying fantastic form before the Olympics, there are no signs that they are in awesome shape this year. In 2000, Tulu improved her 10,000m personal best to 30:56.4 in August. Wami also was running well in the summer of 2000, having run the third fastest 5000m in history, 14:30.88, in August. This year, Tulu has not been seen in action since she won the London marathon in April. Wami was in fantastic shape earlier in the winter and spring season, but she has not shown any sort of form in the early European track season.
Unfortunately, some of the main protagonists in Sydney will be missing in Edmonton. Sonia O’Sullivan, a 1998 European Champion, as well as Tegla Loroupe, a bronze medallist from Sevilla will be missing. The 1994 European, 1995 World, and 1996 Olympic Champion Fernanda Ribeiro was injured during the Mini Marathon in New York, and her condition is suspect.
Did Radcliffe employ the correct strategy in Sevilla and Sydney? “I believe her tactics in Seville and Sydney were correct; people had to run fantastic times to beat her and the gamble could have paid off,” said Mel Watman, a foremost track and field authority and co-publisher and co-editor of Athletics International.
Should Radcliffe repeat the same tactics in Edmonton, but faster? Mel Watman continues, “If she runs 30:00-30:10 in Edmonton there is no guarantee that even Tulu, Wami etc. could match it. Yes, she has a good winning chance.”
Stan Greenberg, a former athletics statistician for BBC, agrees: “The only way she can run, with any hope of winning, is to front run as fast as possible.
“To win in Edmonton, I believe she must run 15min for the first 5,000m and then run as fast or faster for the second half. The only other way would be to throw in two or three exceptionally fast laps at about 7000m after a pretty fast first half.”
In the 1997 World Championships, Sally Barsosio won the 10000m final by surging with three laps to go. She ran a 67.89 lap, and followed it up with 69.46 to open a decisive margin on Ribeiro. These are the tactics perfected by Brendan Foster in the mid-seventies. In the middle of the race, Foster ran a 60 seconds lap and followed it up with another near 60 seconds lap to run away from the field.
In the 2001 US national championships in Eugene, Bob Kennedy won the 5000m after employing multiple surging tactics. Kennedy surged at 2200m, 3000m, 3800m and 4600m, alternating a close to 60 seconds lap with slower 67 seconds laps in between. Said Kennedy after the race: “With that kind of tactics (multiple surging) you don’t try to get away from people, but you try to kill them. Then you try to outsprint them. That’s the whole idea... To do it effectively, you have to prepare for it in training.”
Kennedy also emphasized unpredictability of his tactics. Perhaps, Radcliffe might employ surprising tactics in Edmonton. If Radliffe does not go into the lead after a few laps, everyone in the race will be confused, and perhaps, when she does something surprising, it will be more effective.
“I was very impressed by Paula’s latest run, her 5000m in London, and even Tulu and Wami will need to be at their very best to hold her,” concluded Mel Watman.
“I really believe that Paula can do it,” Stan Greenberg agreed.
