• Withdrawal of world and Olympic champion Nina Kennedy reshuffles the deck
• Katie Moon enters as favourite to retain world gold
• An open podium with room for surprises and upsets

Two years after the unforgettable pole vault final in Budapest – where Australia’s Nina Kennedy and USA’s Katie Moon shared the world title after both clearing 4.90m – this year’s showdown in Tokyo promises to play out quite differently.

Just days before she was due to fly to Japan, Olympic champion Kennedy announced her withdrawal due to a muscle tear suffered during a final training session.

Her absence is a major blow for the competition. But it also opens the door to her rivals – namely Moon. The US vaulter was runner-up in Paris, won four Wanda Diamond League events this season (including the final in Zurich), and has cleared 4.85m outdoors this year. At 34, the 2021 Olympic champion will count on her experience as she aims to become the first woman since Yelena Isinbayeva (2005 and 2007) to retain the world title.

But Moon won't be the only US athlete with gold ambitions. Her fiercest rival is her compatriot Sandi Morris, 33, who beat her at the US Trials in Eugene. Morris has two Diamond League wins this season and two previous world silver medals (2019 and 2022). She also remains the only woman in the Tokyo field to have cleared 5.00m in her career – back in 2016 – and has jumped 4.83m this year.

The US charge doesn’t stop there. Twin sisters Amanda and Hana Moll, just 20, round out the quartet who, between them, could potentially achieve a US podium sweep. Amanda is a serious contender, having cleared a world-leading 4.91m indoors this season, along with a best of 4.78m outdoors. Hana, meanwhile, has set PBs of 4.81m indoors and 4.79m outdoors this year.

Great Britain’s Molly Caudery, the 2024 world indoor champion, has been in excellent form. She won the Doha Diamond League and shares the outdoor world lead of 4.85m this year with Katie Moon – a mark that should be enough to challenge for the podium, though she may need to approach her personal best of 4.92m to take the title.

In the hunt for the podium, France’s Marie-Julie Bonnin will be one to watch. The 23-year-old was one of this year’s breakout stars, stunning the field to win world indoor gold in Nanjing with a personal best of 4.75m. For her first appearance at an outdoor World Championships, she’ll be eager to prove that her indoor gold was no fluke and that she belongs among the global elite in this highly competitive discipline.

Slovenia’s Tina Sutej and Switzerland’s Angelica Moser, who joined Bonnin on the Nanjing podium in March, will also be looking to convert that success to the outdoor stage.

Brazil’s Juliana de Menis Campos is another name on the rise. The two-time South American champion has improved her personal best from 4.60m to 4.76m this year and will be hoping to go even higher. If she does, she could become the first Brazilian woman on a world pole vault podium since Fabiana Murer in 2015.

Finally, the Japanese crowd will have their own athlete to cheer for in Misaki Morota. While her personal best of 4.48m likely places her outside medal contention, her participation marks an important step forward – her first appearance at a World Championships and valuable experience on home soil.

Louis Boulay for World Athletics
Produced as part of the World Athletics Media Academy project